Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 12.303281 14.384059 16.664599 19.343550 22.397980 25.765485 29.752536
2024-10-13 8.839386 11.593354 14.920369 19.207617 24.554679 30.970100 39.212786
2024-10-20 6.702037 9.720710 13.687436 19.215086 26.640532 36.181928 49.265227
2024-10-27 5.287753 8.385663 12.767893 19.299956 28.642876 41.352085 59.732895
2024-11-03 4.638598 7.938751 12.906859 20.738649 32.531139 49.327847 74.675221
2024-11-10 4.028774 7.400536 12.775333 21.689523 35.743437 56.592814 89.249417
2024-11-17 3.505780 6.881609 12.556728 22.417944 38.627022 63.568295 103.949500
2024-11-24 2.918058 6.123512 11.805655 22.143068 39.839800 68.047346 115.187819
2024-12-01 2.364668 5.308057 10.809641 21.283098 39.939212 70.708263 123.719032
2024-12-08 1.943363 4.656355 9.991759 20.595378 40.200657 73.577787 132.720782
2024-12-15 1.690952 4.297371 9.661821 20.737293 41.895703 78.925635 146.154618
2024-12-22 1.431692 3.866408 9.116196 20.381378 42.620208 82.626454 157.026593
2024-12-29 1.322317 3.768797 9.264436 21.460589 46.230004 91.853049 178.457717
2025-01-05 1.161560 3.512905 9.036219 21.747860 48.361788 98.630920 196.152685
2025-01-12 1.016104 3.261448 8.775501 21.928969 50.299153 105.209907 213.995907
2025-01-19 0.890545 3.031853 8.524801 22.092522 52.207385 111.874068 232.469980
2025-01-26 0.860011 3.064363 8.911461 23.742145 57.381581 125.213436 264.379562
2025-02-02 0.801978 3.001493 9.048643 24.825516 61.440303 136.649104 293.387519
2025-02-09 0.737679 2.903209 9.077622 25.651147 65.007589 147.350812 321.648322
2025-02-16 0.636209 2.656658 8.667661 25.343136 66.001461 152.881314 340.071656
2025-02-23 0.527097 2.350261 8.033336 24.374153 65.368108 154.968315 351.708067
2025-03-02 0.441141 2.098398 7.504927 23.598572 65.091468 157.758812 364.920629
2025-03-09 0.392824 1.974130 7.334443 23.758802 67.075204 165.550361 388.966356